Raise the Cigarette Tax, in India, NOW!

This is astounding: "In India, 1 in 5 of all adult male deaths and 1 in 20 of all adult female deaths at ages 30-69 are due to smoking." The article makes a strong case for a big increase in the tax on cigarettes.

Estimates of the responsiveness of cigarette purchases to the (after-tax) cigarette price, while not particularly high, are nevertheless higher than that for bidis, which are a South Asian variety of cigarettes that wrap the tobacco in tendu leaf instead of paper. Why is the bidi comparison important? The mortality rate from smoking is higher for cigarettes: "compared to non-smokers, the risk of dying as a result of smoking 1-7 bidis per day was 30% higher compared to an increase in risk of 80% from smoking the same number of cigarettes per day." Moreover, with rising incomes and stagnant cigarette taxes, more and more Indians are switching to the increasingly affordable and deadlier -- but presumably "cooler" -- cigarettes. This, therefore, is the right time to jack up cigarette taxes and -- as with everything in India -- make sure that the higher taxes are enforced.

I wish the authors of the study had established that when someone switches from bidis to cigarettes, the number of cigarettes smoked per day is no smaller than the number of bidis that was smoked prior to the switch. There is also the possibility that a rise in the cigarette tax may drive smokers to alcohol. But, despite these doubts, a hike in the cigarette tax is almost certainly a no-brainer.