Notable: December 2020

• My Joe Biden Story By Linda Greenhouse, The New York Times, Dec. 31, 2020
  
• The Policy Lessons of the ‘Trump Economy’ By Jason Furman, The Wall Street Journal, December 29, 2020
  
• The Joys of Frivolous Sex By Megan Nolan, The New York Times, December 22, 2020
• Immigrant Neighborhoods Shifted Red as the Country Chose Blue By Weiyi Cai and Ford Fessenden, The New York Times, Dec. 20, 2020
  

Notable: November 2020

• There’s No Better Time to Clear the Air By Elisabeth Kwak-Hefferan, The New York Times, Nov. 28, 2020
  
• Happiness Won’t Save You By Jennifer Senior, The New York Times, Nov. 24, 2020
  
• Can’t visit the dentist? Here’s how to take better care of your teeth BY Elle Hunt, The Guardian, 22 Nov 2020
  
• 'A Black Eye': Why Political Polling Missed the Mark. Again. By David Leonhardt, The New York Times, Nov. 12, 2020
• When to replace smoke detectors, sponges, pillows and more, according to experts By Daniel Bortz, The Washington Post, November 10, 2020
  

Notable: October 2020

• Coronavirus Recovery: Breathing Exercises By Peiting Lien, Johns Hopkins Medicine
• Dementia is more than occasionally forgetting a name or a word By Laurie Archbald-Pannone, The Washington Post, Oct. 18, 2020
  
• Think You Have ‘Normal’ Blood Pressure? Think Again By Jane E. Brody, The New York Times, October 19, 2020
• The Anti-Romantic By Matthew Schmitz, First Things, October 1, 2020 

Notable: September 2020

• Early Works by Edward Hopper Found to be Copies of Other Artists By Blake Gopnik, The New York Times, Sept. 28, 2020
  
• Re-watching ‘The Civil War’ during the Breonna Taylor and George Floyd protests By Gillian Brockell, The Washington Post, September 26, 2020
  
• How to Get More Sleep Tonight By Adam Popescu, The New York Times, March 25, 2020
  
• Beyond the World War II We Know The New York Times, September 6, 2020
• This year marks the 75th anniversary of the end of World War II. This series documents lesser-known stories from the end of the conflict, through original reporting and first-person accounts from people who lived through it.
  
• Where Is America’s Groundbreaking Covid-19 Research? By Ezekiel J. Emanuel, Cathy Zhang and Amaya Diana, The New York Times, Sept. 1, 2020

Trump's Economic Miracle: The Chartbook

Here's my sense of Trump's pre-pandemic economic record:

• he has maintained the economy he inherited in January 2017 from Obama
• I can't find a single instance of a negative Obama trend that was turned into a positive Trump trend

Growth Rate of Inflation-Adjusted Gross Domestic Product

Let's compare the Obama era, which began in the first quarter of 2009 and ended in the first quarter of 2017, which is when the Trump era began. Let's ignore the final two data points for the first two quarters of 2020 because they reflect the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Do you see a Trump miracle? No? Well, neither do I.

Yes, the growth rate has been more stable in the pre-pandemic Trump era. Under Obama, there were some very bad quarters and some very good quarters. Under Trump the growth rate has been less variable, but in no way has there been a noticeable improvement.

(Note: All the charts on this page are interactive. If you move your cursor over a chart you will see the actual numbers plotted.)

Unemployment

Trump brags about the low unemployment rate during his presidency.

Once again, imagine a vertical line at the beginning of 2017 to mark the beginning of Trump's presidency and ignore the data points for 2020, which reflect the Covid-19 pandemic. The unemployment rate has clearly been low under Trump and it had decreased to record rates until the pandemic hit. But it is clear that the decrease in unemployment under Trump was a continuation of the eight-year trend under Obama.

Trump also brags about the record low unemployment rate among African Americans. But, before the pandemic hit, this too was a straight-forward continuation of the Obama recovery:

Manufacturing

Trump has often claimed that his trade and tax policies have worked wonders for U.S. manufacturing. Let's look at the data for the growth rate of inflation-adjusted output in the manufacturing sector.

Once again, Trump's record is hard to distinguish from Obama's (even if you ignore the data for 2020).

And here's the chart for employment in the manufacturing sector:

The gains in the pre-pandemic Trump era are a clear continuation of a long-established trend under Obama.

Mining

In the 2016 presidential campaign, especially in crucial swing states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio, Trump promised to revive the coal mining sector. So, what has been happening to employment in coal mining?

The big slide in employment under Obama has clearly been halted under Trump. So, this is a promise kept. But there has been no reversal of the Obama trend yet. (Of course, it is unclear whether an expansion of coal mining is even desirable. For those worried about climate change, the stalled decline in coal mining is not a good thing.)

Productivity

And as for all the bragging that Trump does about his deregulation, it should have improved business productivity, right?

Again, absolutely no sign of the Trump Miracle over the years 2017, 2018, and 2019. (Throughout this essay I am putting aside the data for 2020, because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The rapid productivity growth in the second quarter of 2020 is likely a reflection of the extreme withdrawal of labor from production; even ECO 101 students know about the phenomenon called diminishing marginal productivity. After the Black Death of the 14th century, productivity rose dramatically.)

Workers' Wages

Here's the data for the growth rate of inflation-adjusted weekly wages for those employed full time:

Again, there's nothing suggesting a dramatic improvement from the Obama era. (By the way, in case you are surprised by the massive growth in wages in the first two quarters of 2020, it is basically because most of those who lost their jobs during the Covid-19 pandemic were low-wage workers; the workers that held on to their jobs were mainly those who could do their work over the Internet from home.)

Investment

Trump's signature action regarding economic policy was to cut the corporate tax from 35 percent to 14 percent. He had argued that this would dramatically improve business investment spending. So, what has been happening to inflation-adjusted business investment (measured as a percentage of GDP)?

Nothing much. The big improvement was during the Obama recovery. That increase has not continued after 2017.

Trade Deficit

In his 2016 campaign, Trump had made a big deal about the U.S. trade deficit, picking fights with China, Canada, Mexico, Europe, etc., and using the trade deficit as his rhetorical cudgel. So, what has happened to the U.S. net exports (again, measured as a percentage of GDP) since Trump became president in January 2017?

I can't see any improvement. Can you?

(Net exports is exports minus imports. For the U.S., net exports has almost always been negative -- meaning that exports have been less than imports in dollar value -- ever since the 1970s. When a country's net exports has a negative (respectively, positive) value we say the country has a trade deficit (respectively, surplus). By the way, I don't care what happens to the trade deficit. I bring it up here only because Trump made such a big deal about it.)

The Government's Budget Deficit

I actually don't know if Trump has said anything about the U.S. federal government's budget deficit, which is the excess of the government's spending over its tax revenues. But Republicans routinely ignore it when Republicans are in power and magnify its supposed danger when Democrats are in power. So, what has happened to the budget deficit (as a percentage of GDP) since January 2017?

It fell quite sharply under Obama till 2015. The deficit widened thereafter and that widening has continued under Trump.

The Government's Debt

The amount borrowed by the government in any given period is the budget deficit that we just saw. The accumulation of such borrowing is called the debt. Again, Republicans ignore the national debt when they are in power and complain loudly about it when Democrats are in power. Here's what's been happening to the national debt (as a percentage of GDP) under Trump.

It is clear that Trump has made no dent in the national debt.

Inflation

Inflation is mainly under the control of the Federal Reserve, which is the central bank of the United States, and has little to do with who the president happens to be. Nevertheless, if you are curious:

Conclusion

To conclude where I began, Trump could be given credit for having kept the economy that he inherited in January 2017 from Obama in relatively good shape (at least before the pandemic hit). But I can't find a single instance of a negative Obama trend that has turned into a positive Trump trend. For the purposes of this essay, I have ignored 2020. But historians may see Trump's tragic and nightmarishly costly mishandling of the Covid-19 pandemic as part of his economic legacy. The economy will not come alive until the dying stops.

Notable: August 2020

• ‘I Fear That We Are Witnessing the End of American Democracy’ By Thomas B. Edsall, The New York Times, Aug. 26, 2020
  
• How to take the perfect breath: why learning to breathe properly could change your life By Emine Saner, The Guardian, 26 Aug 2020
  
• Op-Ed: U.S. leaders knew we didn’t have to drop atomic bombs on Japan to win the war. We did it anyway By GAR ALPEROVITZ AND MARTIN J. SHERWIN, Los Angeles Times, AUG. 5, 2020
  
• The Unique U.S. Failure to Control the Virus By David Leonhardt and Graphics by Lauren Leatherby, The New York Times, Aug. 6, 2020
  

Notable: July 2020

• Children May Carry Coronavirus at High Levels, Study Finds By Apoorva Mandavilli, The New York Times, July 30, 2020
• "The research does not prove that infected children are contagious, but it should influence the debate about reopening schools, some experts said."
  
• More Than 6,600 Coronavirus Cases Have Been Linked to U.S. Colleges By Weiyi Cai, Danielle Ivory, Mitch Smith, Alex Lemonides and Lauryn Higgins, The New York Times, July 29, 2020
  
• A lot of us have been thinking about where we live. Here’s what research into neighborhoods shows. By Galadriel Watson, The Washington Post, July 28, 2020
  
• To build strength at home without buying bulky equipment, try resistance bands. Here’s how. By Pam Moore, The Washington Post, July 27, 2020
  
• Spin, deride, attack: How Trump’s handling of Trump University presaged his presidency By David A. Fahrenthold, Joshua Partlow and Jonathan O'Connell, The Washington Post, July 25, 2020
  
• Breathe Better With These Nine Exercises By Kelly DiNardo, The New York Times, July 18, 2020
  
• The lights go out on Lebanon’s economy as financial collapse accelerates By Liz Sly, The Washington Post, July 19, 2020
  
• We Interrupt This Gloom to Offer … Hope By Nicholas Kristof, July 16, 2020
  
• It’s Been 75 Years, and America Still Won’t Admit a Nuclear Disaster By Joshua Wheeler, The New York Times, July 15, 2020
  
• ‘Now I Am Become Death’: The Legacy of the First Nuclear Bomb Test By Maria Cramer, The New York Times, July 15, 2020
  
• Fertility rate: 'Jaw-dropping' global crash in children being born By James Gallagher, BBC News, 15 July 2020
  
• America’s Enduring Caste System by Isabel Wilkerson, The New York Times Magazine, July 1, 2020